An interesting word, “prodromic.” It comes from medicine, but it’s used among historians. It means that certain events could be seen as symptomatic enough to be predictors of other events, without worrying too much about what’s causing what: if X is happening, Y is likely to happen, too. Perhaps the best approach is to lay out the odds. Here goes:
1] Chances that there really was a plan to attack the scheduled Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna: 90%. This does not invalidate my assessment. After all, the chances that a young Jew out for revenge would plan to assassinate a Nazi official in November, 1938 were close to 100%.
2] Chances that the accused will get a fair, open hearing: 0%. Austria ranks high in corruption, not because Justice can be bought, but because Justice is merely a question of who you know and who went to school with whom. The minute a narrative’s laid out, there is no way to modify that narrative without humiliating somebody’s childhood friend. Young Muslims are not anyone’s childhood friend, at least of anyone who waltzed through Law School, and Law School in turn requires a grasp of German that no-one who’s not a childhood friend of another native speaker can possibly be thought to attain.
3] Chances that the Austrian authorities were initially indifferent to such an attack happening: 70%. The operational term is “Schlamperei,” a common term to describe the modus operandi of Austrian authorities, which translates, roughly, as “manipulative slovenliness.” I’m told that the Austrian Police were tipped off by the Americans. If that were the case, of course, it would be necessary to act, lest someone’s cousin in the Police be humiliated for their Schlamperei.
4] Chances that there will be an attack on an immigrant reception center in Carinthia or elsewhere outside of Vienna: 80%. There are a number of such centers, set up during the last immigrant surge. A golden opportunity for the local gentry to “spontaneously rise” and wipe these centers off the map.
5] Chances that there will be attacks on non-Aryans in, say, Vorarlberg, the westernmost Land (province) of Austria: 70%. The area is an extension of hyper-racist Bavaria and hyper-capitalist Swabia, with a high proportion of Muslims and a string of maquilladoras along the Swiss border.
6] Chances of violent clashes in predominantly Muslim areas of Vienna (Favoriten, Floridsdorf, etc): 60%. And honest to goodness, none of this amuses me; but the thought of outraged Swifties tangling with Turkish butchers in the Brunnenmarkt… Well, okay. Not funny. Grotesque, but not funny. This is Austria.
WOID XXIV-12
August 9, 2024